Добро пожаловать в новый мировой порядок / Welcome to the new world order

Добро пожаловать в новый мировой порядок / Welcome to the new world order

Согласно годовому отчету МВФ, будущее мировой экономики за странами БРИКС, а экономическая мощь Запада уменьшается в геометрической прогрессии.

the backdrop of this massive power shift from the West to the East, how much longer can the current geopolitical hierarchy – which has remained unchanged since World War II – survive? Currently, the United Nations, IMF and World Bank are all in the laundry list of reforms.

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi has highlighted the incongruity of 1.2 billion Indians not being adequately represented at the UN. Indeed, the presence of Britain and France in the Security Council P5 – while India, Japan and Brazil remain outside – borders on the ridiculous.

IMF shareholding is even more bizarre. The US has the single largest share at 16.7 per cent. But China has a 3.8 per cent share – slightly lower than Italy’s, which has an economy one-fifth the size.

IMF managing director Christine Lagarde realises America’s refusal to ratify reforms – to increase the voting share of China, India and other emerging countries – spells danger for the Fund’s future. She is, therefore, keen on quota reform. “It was due in 2012. It is overdue in 2014,” Lagarde said at a press meet on October 9.

But more striking than economic decline is the defeatism and angst that has set in among westerners. A recent Pew Research Center poll shows only 28 percent of Americans believe the US is exceptional or the greatest of all nations.

“The rise of the national security state and the triumphalism of the corporate sector (along with the much publicised growth of great wealth and striking inequality in the country) has been accompanied by a decided diminution in the power of the government to function domestically and of the imperial state to impose its will anywhere on Earth,” says American writer Tom Engelhardt.

“What can be seen is the untracked rise of a Third World country inside a First World one, a powerless America inside the putative global superpower,” he adds.

Because the US is the western alliance’s engine, its sputtering morale is having a domino effect on the rest of the West. Its vassals such as Saudi Arabia, UAE, Qatar, Kuwait, Georgia and Pakistan also face uncertain futures.

As the emerging economies grow in size, it gives them the critical mass to lay down the foundations of a new order that is autonomous from the western international order.

To be sure, the loss of absolute power doesn’t mean the West will be eating grass in the future. Its decline is only relative and it retains many core strengths. The overall quality of life, for instance, in the US and Europe is far higher than in China or India. Western multinational corporations control a good chunk of global manufacturing. Western universities attract hundreds of thousands of students from emerging countries. Silicon Valley’s R&D and innovation is unmatched.

But the days when the West was unchallenged and could steamroll countries are over. With each passing year China, India and Russia get richer and militarily more powerful. The gap in living standards is closing rapidly. By 2050 the 10 largest economies will include new entrants Egypt, Mexico and Nigeria, with only the US representing the West. Welcome to the polycentric world order.

Оригинал публикации: http://in.rbth.com/blogs/2014/10/17/welcome_to_the_new_world_order_39109.html